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| 非洲猪瘟背景下生猪产业链价格波动及传导研究——以河北省为例 |
| Study on the price fluctuation and transmission of the live pigs industry chain under the background of African swine in Hebei |
| 投稿时间：2020-09-08 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 非洲猪瘟 生猪产业链 价格波动 价格传导 |
| 英文关键词:African swine fever Live pigs industry chain Price fl uctuations Price conduction |
| 基金项目:河北省教育厅2015年人文社会科学研究重大课题“河北省现代畜牧业发展研究”（ZD201516）：河北省生猪创新团队产业经济岗位项目（HBCT2018110301） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 非洲猪瘟疫情的暴发对我国生猪产业，尤其是生猪产业链价格产生巨大影响。为研究非洲猪瘟背景下河北省生猪产业链价格波动及传导机制，文章选取河北省2018年8月至2020年6月周度平均仔猪价格、生猪价格和猪肉价格作为生猪产业链价格代表，通过构建协整和误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验方法分析非洲猪瘟对生猪产业链内部价格传导过程的影响。研究结果表明：非洲猪瘟背景下河北省生猪产业链价格存在长期均衡关系，但其上下游价格传导受阻，而屠宰场和销售市场的垂直整合度增强；生猪产业链中存在一定的反向误差修正机制；生猪产业链上、中游对下游价格的影响更为明显，并据此提出非洲猪瘟背景下河北省调控生猪产业链价格的政策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The outbreak of African swine fever(ASF) has a great impact on China's pig industry, especially the price of the pig industry chain. In order to study the price fl uctuations and transmission mechanism of the live pigs industry chain in Hebei province under the background of African swine fever pig(ASF),, this article selects the weekly average piglet price, live pigs price and pork price from August 2018 to June 2020 in Hebei, as the representatives of the pig industry chain price, analyzing the infl uence of African swine fever(ASF) on the price conduction process of the live pigs industry chain by building co-integration and error correction model, and Granger causality test method. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of the live pigs industry chain in Hebei under the background of African swine fever(ASF), but the price transmission of the upstream and downstream is blocked, and the vertical integration of slaughterhouses and sales markets is enhanced. There is a certain reverse error correction mechanism in the live pigs industry chain. The upstream and midstream of the live pigs industry chain have a more obvious impact on the lower prices. Based on this, the policy suggestions on controlling the price of the live pigs industry chain under the background of African swine fever(ASF) in Hebei are put forward. |
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