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| 2020年我国生猪复产面临的机遇与挑战 |
| Opportunities and challenges of pig production in China in 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2020-02-23 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 生猪复产 非洲猪瘟 新冠疫情 经济影响 |
| 英文关键词:Pig production African swine fever Novel coronavirus Economic effects |
| 基金项目:国家生猪产业技术体系建设专项（CARS-35） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2018年8月以来受非洲猪瘟疫情的影响，我国生猪产能大幅度下滑，2019年猪肉产量为4 255万吨，同比下降21.26%；2019年全国生猪出栏量为54 419万头，同比下降21.57%，年末生猪存栏31 041万头，同比下降27.5%。目前我国生猪产业正处于产能恢复的关键时期。2020年1月，非洲猪瘟造成的产能大幅下跌态势还没有得到缓解，新型冠状病毒肺炎又至，1月23日武汉市实施封城，随后各地相继采取封城、暂停公共交通、封路、人员居家隔离、集聚性产业停业等系列措施，这些措施在防控疫情的同时也限制了生猪生产相关物资与人员的流通。在非洲猪瘟和新冠肺炎疫情双重压力下，2020年我国生猪复产的道路变得更加艰难。文章从当前我国生猪产业的现状与挑战以及2020年度生猪产业经济领域发展趋势，两个方面展开论述，分析我国生猪产业面临的挑战并对未来我国生猪市场行情做出适当的预测。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Affected by African swine fever since August 2018, China's pig production capacity has declined significantly, the pork production in 2019 standing at 42.55 million tons, a down 21.26% from last year. In 2019, pig crop was 544.19 million pigs, down 21.57from last year; pig stock was 310.41 million, down 27.5% from last year. At present, China's pig industry is in a critical period of capacity recovery. In January 2020, the damage from African swine fever has not been recovered. The novel coronavirus(COVID-19) has occurred in January. Wuhan closed the city from 23rd January, subsequently, a series of measures were taken in various places, including the closure of cities, suspension of public transport, road closures, isolation of people from their homes, and closure of clustered industries, these measures not only prevent and control the epidemic, but also restrict the circulation of materials and people related to pig production. Under the double pressure of African swine fever and new crown pneumonia disease, the road of pig production resumption in China in 2020 becomes more difficult. This paper discusses the current situation and challenges of China's pig industry, as well as the development trend of the pig industry in 2020, and this paper also analyzes the challenges faced by China's pig industry and forecasts the market situation of China's pig market in the future. |
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