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| 2019年世界生猪产业发展情况及2020年的趋势 |
| Development of world pig industry in 2019 and its market trends in 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2020-01-19 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 世界生猪产业 2019年现状 2020年趋势 |
| 英文关键词:World pig industry Current situation in 2019 Trend in 2020 |
| 基金项目:国家生猪产业技术体系建设专项（CARS-35）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2019年世界猪肉产量有较大幅度下降，总产为10 613万吨，比2018年下降了6.03%，其中世界最大猪肉生产国中国的产量下降幅度巨大，下降幅度为13.95%。长期以来中国的生猪生产与消费占据着世界的半壁江山，2019年受到非洲猪瘟疫情的影响，中国生猪产量大幅度下降，猪肉进口大幅度上升，导致了世界整体猪肉产量的下滑以及猪肉贸易量的大幅度上升。2020年中国猪肉产能下滑趋势将得到缓解，但是供给紧缺、进口增加的态势将持续，将对世界猪肉生产以及贸易格局带来巨大影响。世界第二、第三大猪肉进口国日本与墨西哥的猪肉生产稳定，猪肉价格平稳上升，猪肉进口量2019年也有一定增长。随着中国的猪肉进口需求量增加，预计2020年全球猪肉贸易量会有一定上升，美国、欧盟等主要猪肉出口国的猪肉产量将有一定增长，下面详细考察2019年世界生猪产业的发展情况并对2020年的走势做出初步判断。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In 2019, the world's total pork production dropped significantly to 106.13 million tons, 6.03 percent lower than in 2018. China, the world's largest producer of pork, saw a huge drop in its production by 13.95 percent. China has for a long time accounted for half of the world's pig production and consumption. Affected by the outbreak of African swine fever in 2019, China's pig production has dropped sharply and pork imports have risen sharply, which has led to a decline in the world's overall pork production and a sharp rise in the volume of the pork trade. In 2020, the downward trend of China's pork production capacity will be alleviated, but the situation of supply shortage and import increase will continue, which will have a great impact on the world pork production and trade pattern. Japan and Mexico, the world's second and third largest importers of pork, have stable pork production, with a steady rise in pork imports and a rise in pork imports in 2019. As China's pork import demand increases, the global pork trade is expected to rise somewhat in 2020, and the pork output of major pork exporting countries such as the United States and the European Union will increase to a certain extent. The following is a detailed review of the development of the world pig industry in 2019 and a preliminary assessment of the trend in 2020. |
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